Step back from the forest

I observed a leading economic indicator in action last Friday.  I didn't realize it until I stepped back from the trees and looked at the forest.

 Over the past two weekends I've been doing some renovation work on a rental house my family owns.  The flooring in the kitchen, dining room, hallway, and bathroom had to be pulled up and replaced.  The bathroom vanity and the kitchen cabinets had to be replaced.  The water heater was shot so it too had to be replaced.  Needless to say I've spent a lot of time at Home Depot.

I had to pick up several sheets of plywood, luan, the bathroom vanity, faucet, screws, etc.  We had placed the order on-line a few days earlier so I had to go to the Service desk to let them know I was ready to pick up the order.  There were several people ahead doing the same exact thing.  They were picking up building supply materials, lawn tractors, etc.  All were big ticket orders. 

I was anxious to get my materials and get going and I was growing agitated about having to wait in line.  Finally I had my turn, got everything settled and was told to go to the pick-up area.  Of course by the time I got my truck pulled around to the covered area I was again behind all those folks I had been behind at the service counter.  Two lanes of folks loading various purchases.  I was number 5 in line sitting in the hot sun wishing I was under the shelter or back in the store in the AC.  I watched the people and the HD employees load a pallet of Sakrete, sand, lumber, etc onto each customers vehicle.  I began wondering what type of project was taking place.  Eventually my turn came and I had two HD folks help me load my truck with my supplies.  It took about ten minutes and while we were doing so, I struck up a conversation with the fellows.  I commented that I picked the wrong time to get my stuff since I had to wait in line.  They told me that it had been like that all day long.  We got finished and I thanked them for their help as they moved onto the next person in line.  More heavy building materials.  I felt sorry for them.

As I was driving away, I tried to remember the last time I saw HD that busy.  It was way back in 2006.  Then it dawned on me, the consumer is opening their wallet again.  People are finally feeling confident enough to spend some money on home improvement projects, lawn tractors, etc.  That lead me to thinking about how many new small businesses would be created this year to help satisfy the consumers needs and wants.  How many new jobs would be created as the economy pulled out of its malaise? 

Lesson learned:  Don't get so caught up in your own world that you miss the signals that the economy is sending you.  Sometimes we just have to step back from the forest to see the trees.